Using system dynamics to model social vulnerability and resilience to coastal hazards

Abstract

In response to increasing emphasis on adapting to climate change, various stakeholders have focused on building adaptive capacity and 'mainstreaming' adaptation policies, although the tools to achieve these goals are still developing. Using Metro Vancouver as a case study, this paper outlines how a system dynamics (SD) approach was used to develop a conceptual model of social vulnerability and resilience in order to simulate the impact of potential adaptation polices. The SD approach was particularly effective for: modelling the underlying constructs and feedbacks related to vulnerability; linking vulnerability and resilience concepts; and integrating the responses and actions taken at various scales. Challenges included modelling the relationship between vulnerability and resilience, and establishing causal linkages and directional relationships between feedbacks. The model demonstrates the potential for SD tools to help stakeholders bridge the gap between theory and on-the-ground decision-making by providing insight into the potential effectiveness of proposed adaptation interventions.