Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions

Abstract

Abstract It is well established that a collapse or strong reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would substantially cool the northern high latitudes. Here we show that there is a possibility that such cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO 2 removal and result in a temporary undershoot of a targeted temperature level. We find this behaviour in Earth system models that show a strong AMOC decline in response to anthropogenic forcing. Idealized simulations of CO 2 removal with one of these models indicate that the timing of negative emissions relative to AMOC decline and recovery is key in setting the strength of the temporary cooling. We show that the pronounced temperature-fluctuations at high northern latitudes found in these simulations would entail considerable consequences for sea-ice and permafrost extent as well as for high latitude ecosystems.