Regional Collision Risk Prediction System at a Collision Area Considering Spatial Pattern

Abstract

To reduce the risk of collision in territorial sea areas, including trade ports and entry waterways, and to enhance the safety and efficiency of ship passage, the International Maritime Organization requires the governing body of every country to establish and operate a vessel traffic service (VTS). However, previous studies on risk prediction models did not consider the locations of near collisions and actual collisions and only employed a combined collision risk index in surveillance sea areas. In this study, we propose a regional collision risk prediction system for a collision area considering spatial patterns using a density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). Furthermore, a fuzzy inference system based on a near collision (FIS-NC) and long short-term memory (LSTM) is adopted to help a vessel traffic service operator (VTSO) make timely optimal decisions. In the local spatial pattern stage, the ship trajectory was determined by identifying the actual-collision and near-collision locations simultaneously. Finally, the system was developed by learning a sequence dataset from the extracted trajectory of the ship when a collision occurred. The proposed system can recommend an action faster than the fuzzy inference system based on the near-collision location. Therefore, using the developed system, a VTSO can quickly predict ship collision risk situations and make timely optimal decisions at dangerous surveillance sea areas.