Interpretability Analysis of One-Year Mortality Prediction for Stroke Patients Based on Deep Neural Network

Abstract

Clinically, physicians collect the benchmark medical data to establish archives for a stroke patient and then add the follow up data regularly. It has great significance on prognosis prediction for stroke patients. In this paper, we present an interpretable deep learning model to predict the one-year mortality risk on stroke. We design sub-modules to reconstruct features from original clinical data that highlight the dissimilarity and temporality of different variables. The model consists of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), in which a novel correlation attention module is proposed that takes the correlation of variables into consideration. In experiments, datasets are collected clinically from the department of neurology in a local AAA hospital. It consists of 2,275 stroke patients hospitalized in the department of neurology from 2014 to 2016. Our model achieves a precision of 0.9414, a recall of 0.9502 and an F1-score of 0.9415. In addition, we provide the analysis of the interpretability by visualizations with reference to clinical professional guidelines.