From prison to parliament: Victimhood, identity, and electoral support

Abstract

Are voters more likely to support candidates who are victims of political persecution? I draw on an original survey with embedded experiments deployed in Turkey ahead of the June 2015 General Election to advance a theory linking political victimhood to an electoral advantage. The results suggest that voters primed with information about a candidate’s political imprisonment, on average, report higher ideological affinity with the candidate. In addition, respondents who identify as co-victims are more likely to say they would vote for a candidate who was imprisoned. These findings are significant and hold regardless of which party the candidate belongs to. Respondents presented with a candidate from the incumbent Justice and Development Party also report higher levels of trust and closeness with the candidate who was imprisoned. This pattern is consistent for voters with low trust in the Justice and Development Party leadership and low levels of religiosity, demonstrating that a history of persecution can broaden candidates’ support.