Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulation of Societal Impacts of Infrastructure Service Disruptions during Disasters

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to model and examine the impacts of different levels of infrastructure service losses caused by disasters on the households’ well-being residing in a community. An agent-based simulation model was developed to capture complex mechanisms underlying households’ tolerance for the service outages, including household characteristics (e.g., sociodemographic, social capital, resources, and previous disaster experience), physical infrastructure attributes, and extreme disruptive events. The rules governing these mechanisms were determined using empirical survey data collected from the residents of Harris County affected by Hurricane Harvey as well as the existing models for power outages and service restoration times. The analysis results highlighted the spatial diffusion of service risks among households living in affected areas in disasters. The proposed simulation model will provide utility agencies with an analytical tool for prioritization of infrastructure service restoration actions to effectively mitigate the societal impacts of service losses.