Recent increase in catastrophic tropical cyclone flooding in coastal North Carolina, USA: Long-term observations suggest a regime shift

Abstract

Coastal North Carolina, USA, has experienced three extreme tropical cyclone-driven flood events since 1999, causing catastrophic human impacts from flooding and leading to major alterations of water quality, biogeochemistry, and ecological conditions. The apparent increased frequency and magnitudes of such events led us to question whether this is just coincidence or whether we are witnessing a regime shift in tropical cyclone flooding and associated ecosystem impacts. Examination of continuous rainfall records for coastal NC since 1898 reveals a period of unprecedentedly high precipitation since the late-1990's, and a trend toward increasingly high precipitation associated with tropical cyclones over the last 120 years. We posit that this trend, which is consistent with observations elsewhere, represents a recent regime shift with major ramifications for hydrology, carbon and nutrient cycling, water and habitat quality and resourcefulness of Mid-Atlantic and possibly other USA coastal regions.