Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes

TLDR

Climate models predict more frequent extreme precipitation in a warming world, but observational limits have made direct evaluation difficult. The study aims to investigate how tropical precipitation extremes respond to natural variations in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture. This was done using satellite observations and model simulations to assess tropical precipitation responses to temperature and moisture changes. Observations show that heavy rainfall events intensify during warm periods and weaken during cold periods, and that the amplification of extremes exceeds model predictions, suggesting future warming impacts may be underestimated.

Abstract

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.