Improved Energy Structure Prediction Model Based on Energy Demand Forecast

Abstract

In recent years, with the outbreak of the energy crisis and the increasingly serious environmental problems, the energy consumption structure changes tremendously. Proportion of nonrenewable resources is declining year by year, while the renewable energy's proportion increases steadily. Therefore, it is necessary for a city to predict energy structure accurately, in order to make a reasonable development plan. Through increasing restrictions based on the energy demand forecast and the future energy plan, this paper introduces the Markov chain to set up an improved energy structure prediction model. Combining the data of the energy demand energy structure during 2003 to 2016 and the energy developing plan of a certain region, the proposed model is tested. The result verifies the feasibility of the model.