The use of exponential smoothing method to predict missing service e-report

Abstract

“One-Click Service Police Resort” is public service innovation that can give a solution especially missing service report (E-Report) for Banyuwangi Society. In this research examines the selection of an appropriate forecasting model in accordance with time series data available for predicting the missing reports in a period. The forecasting method uses Single, Double, and Triple Exponential Smoothing. Forecasting accuracy of detection is discussed using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The result shows that Single Exponential Smoothing is considered an appropriate method to forecast the missing reports of E-Report Police Resort because it produces the smallest value of MAD and MSE.