Job Scarcity and Voluntary Turnover in the U.S. Federal Bureaucracy

Abstract

Research suggests that job scarcity affects voluntary turnover in an organization, but there is no consensus on the exact role of job scarcity in the voluntary turnover process. We develop an integrative model that treats job scarcity as a direct antecedent of voluntary turnover as well as a moderator of other antecedents. Based on a panel of 185 federal agencies from 2006 to 2011, we consider leaving to another federal agency (employee transfers) and seeking work outside the federal government (quits) as distinct forms of voluntary turnover. The results confirm the significance of job scarcity as a key moderator in the voluntary turnover process. We find that job satisfaction lowers actual quits and that this effect weakens as jobs become increasingly scarce. Regarding employee transfers, however, job scarcity does not have any significant effects: Rather, the findings suggest that intention to transfer is the critical antecedent of actual transfers.