Land-use experts’ perception of regional climate change: an empirical analysis from the North German Plain

Abstract

The impact of climate change on a variety of scales and on land-use policies across sectors is well-established. There will be climate-related changes to which land use must adapt, although Europe and Germany may not be as affected as other regions. Therefore, we must evaluate how climate change is perceived on a regional scale and across land-use sectors. The aim of this study is to gather information from regional land-use experts regarding their perceptions of climate change to highlight the impact of climate change on land use and to identify the risks and opportunities associated with climate change that these experts observe. With these objectives in mind, we conducted 60 semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey with regional land-use experts in agriculture, forestry, and water management in four case study regions in the North German Plain. Climate change is clearly acknowledged by the experts throughout the regions and across the sectors. Drought (particularly in the spring) and increased occurrences of extreme weather events are the most severe regional issues identified. Furthermore, with very few exceptions, climate change is mostly understood as a risk. The results of this study confirm the results from other models and prognoses but with more detail and precision at the regional level. Differences among the sectors and regions were also noted. Unlike most studies, the regional experts in our sample have already noted the impacts and risks of climate change cross-sectorally, which might be a good basis from which to begin regional adaptation.