Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

Abstract

Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weather-driven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records.