Can the distribution of sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn. f.) shift in the northeastern direction in India due to changing climate

Abstract

Sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn. f.) is a dominant tree species, whose natural range lies between 20–32°N lat. and 75–95°E long., is spread across 10 million ha in India. Species distribution models predict the species geographic ranges from occurrence records and sitespecific environmental data. Here, we have (i) generated the 1960s scenario for sal species on the basis of the existing published literature; (ii) confirmed the species occurrence data using satellite imagery for the period of 1972–75; (iii) run the Maxent species distribution model to predict the distribution for the year 2020 under climate change scenario SRES A1-B and (iv) validated the prediction using more than double the amount of species occurrence data gathered during the last decade (1998–2008). The model identified moisture as the key player that would influence the distribution to shift towards northern and eastern India, with greater than 90% certainty. The study highlights utility of the archived remote sensing data in providing locational information in climate change studies.