Parameter uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in the upper Dong Nai river basin

Abstract

Hydrological models play vital roles in management of water resources. However, the calibration of the hydrological models is a large challenge because of the uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters. In this study, four uncertainty analysis techniques, including SUFI-2, GLUE, ParaSol, and PSO, were applied to assess the uncertainty of hydrological modelling results of the SWAT model. The upper Dong Nai River Basin was selected as a case study for this research. The four methods were compared in terms of the model prediction uncertainty, the model performance, and the model computational efficiency. The results indicated the SUF-2 method was able to provide more reasonable and accurate prediction than the other three methods. The results of this study provide a scientific reference based on uncertainty analysis to decision-makers in order to improve the decision support process in river basin management.