Benefits of Scenario Planning Applied to Energy Development

Abstract

Scenario planning was first used effectively by Royal Dutch Shell approximately 40 years ago. The company recognized that efforts to predict exactly the future are unlikely to be very successful. The premise of scenario planning is that organizations look at possible future trends and project several possible futures (or scenarios). The intent is to project enough such scenarios, even unlikely ones, that they “bracket” possible futures. This enables one to assess the ability of their policy, process, or design to perform positively within any of the scenarios and thus represent a truly robust choice. This paper briefly describes some examples of use of scenario planning within the energy sector, as well as some unusual factors that may influence the outcomes.