Strategic Implications of Openness in <scp>AI</scp> Development

TLDR

Medium‑ and long‑term effects of AI openness are complex, hinging on whether the goal is to benefit current generations or a time‑neutral aggregate of future well‑being. The study preliminarily evaluates the desirability of various openness modalities in AI—source code, science, data, safety, capabilities, and goals—while outlining key factors for informed judgments. Short‑term openness generally yields social benefits; openness about safety and goals may be advantageous for both present and future welfare, whereas openness about source code, science, and capabilities could heighten competition and make safety‑delaying measures less viable during the advanced‑AI race.

Abstract

Abstract This paper attempts a preliminary analysis of the global desirability of different forms of openness in AI development (including openness about source code, science, data, safety techniques, capabilities, and goals). Short‐term impacts of increased openness appear mostly socially beneficial in expectation. The strategic implications of medium and long‐term impacts are complex. The evaluation of long‐term impacts, in particular, may depend on whether the objective is to benefit the present generation or to promote a time‐neutral aggregate of well‐being of future generations. Some forms of openness are plausibly positive on both counts (openness about safety measures, openness about goals). Others (openness about source code, science, and possibly capability) could lead to a tightening of the competitive situation around the time of the introduction of advanced AI , increasing the probability that winning the AI race is incompatible with using any safety method that incurs a delay or limits performance. We identify several key factors that must be taken into account by any well‐founded opinion on the matter.