Flow Variation in Astore River under Assumed Glaciated Extents Due to Climate Change

Abstract

Various researchers have concluded the existence of many glaciers in doubt by the end of this century due to global warming phenomenon. The great Himalayas are also under such stress. The recent acceleration in rainfall pattern resulted the ever worst destruction due to floods (2010) in Pakistan. Many Watershed models, capable of incorporating the climate change scenarios have been developed in this regard to predict the future flows. But it is not easy to select the most appropriate model for a particular watershed to get the best results. In this regard, the paper is an effort where the analysis has been made on Astore Watershed, Pakistan, by considering the model results obtained from the three watershed models i.e. UBC Watershed Model, HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS. The results are obtained by considering different glaciated extents of 100%, 50% and 0% under future climate scenario (SRES A2), simulated by PRECIS Regional Climate Model for (2071-2100). For changed climate scenario, discharges for the simulations at 100% reduction in glaciated area were -72%, - 15% and -46% for HBV-Met, HBV-PRECIS and UBC Watershed Model respectively.