Projections of Non-English Language Background and Limited English Proficient Persons In the United States to the Year 2000: Educational Planning in the Demographic Context

Abstract

This article provides projections of non-English language background (NELB) and limited English proficient (LEP) persons in the United States until the year 2000, using 1976 as a base year.1 Breakdowns are presented by language, age, and state and combinations of these categories. The NELB population is projected to increase from 28 million persons in 1976 to 30 million in 1980, 34.7 million in 1990, and 39.5 million in 2000. The total number of LEP children ages 5–14 estimated for 1976 is 2.5 million, with a drop to 2.4 million in 1980 and a gradual increase to 2.8 million in 1990 and 3.4 million in 2000. These figures can be compared to the estimate of 3.6 million children in the entire 4–18 year old school-age population in 1978, based on the Children’s English and Services Study. The Spanish NELB and LEP groups grow faster than other NELB and LEP groups. Projections are based on a number of assumptions. Projections do not take into account unpredictable political and sociological trends resulting in changes in immigration and fertility patterns, nor do they deal with undocumented immigrants. Nevertheless, these results are the best available figures about numbers of non-English language background and limited English proficient persons until the end of the century.