Risk evaluation system and models of agrometeorological disasters

Abstract

From point of view on risk analysis of disasters, the risk evaluation system of disasters related to drought of winter wheat in northern China, waterlogging of winter wheat in Jianghuai Valley,cool injury of crop in summer in Northeast China and cold damage of banana and litchi in South China is established. The system consists of risk (identification),risk estimation and risk evaluation.In the risk identification ,the disasters-pregnant environment,disasters-causing factors and characteristics of damaged situation are clarified. In the risk evaluation, based on characteristics of disasters,loss of disasters and meanings of resistant capability, the corresponding risk probability model are put forward; applying yield data and meteorological data of many years, the applied and operable risk probability models on intensity,loss and resistant capability of every disaster are put forward too; applying the yield data and meteorological data of every year, the risk probability and risk index of disasters with different intensities and losses are estimated by the models mentioned above; and the regional difference of risk levels are clarified. In the risk evaluation, the risk indices of loss caused by every disasters are synthesized, the index of risk zonation are presented and then risk zonation are made.