Sophomore Surge in State Legislative Elections, 1968-86

Abstract

An analysis using district-level data for more than 5,100 cases of freshman legislators seeking reelection in 32 states shows considerable evidence of a sophomore surge phenomenon during the 1970s and 1980s. First-term legislators in both upper and lower houses in nearly all of the states were found to benefit from surge when the analysis was controlled for statewide party swing. A multivariate model of individual-level surge across states is estimated, with structural, institutional, interparty competition, and national conditions variables, as well as year and region. One of the most noteworthy findings is that member resources-especially the availability of personal staff-are positively related to surge.