Dangerous Disputes: A Study of Conflict Behavior and War

Abstract

The authors address the question of why some interstate disputes evolve into wars while others do not. They propose that factors accounting for different outcomes can be divided into two groups: those associated with the bargaining behavior of the disputants and those associated with the attributes of the dispute and disputants. They develop a typology of bargaining behavior and show that eight ideal types of bargaining behavior can be ranked with respect to their propensities to entangle disputants in war. While there exists predictable variance in dispute outcomes across these categories of bargaining behavior, there also exists some variance within the categories. The authors suggest that this withingroup variance largely is accounted for by the relative capabilities of the disputants, the relative determination of opposing regimes to pursue their objectives, and the willingness of the great powers to intervene in or mediate ongoing disputes.