Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation

TLDR

The study develops a follow‑the‑leader model to explain the strategic component of political participation. The model posits that leaders adjust effort according to their chance of being pivotal, which depends on expected race closeness at state and national levels and voter responses to that effort. Using state‑by‑state U.S. presidential election data, the study finds that voter turnout rises with predicted closeness, and structural estimation confirms the model, with a 1‑percent increase in predicted closeness boosting turnout by 0.34 percent.

Abstract

Using state-by-state voting data for U.S. presidential elections, we observe that voter turnout is a positive function of predicted closeness. To explain the strategic component of political participation, we develop a follow-the-leader model. Political leaders expend effort according to their chance of being pivotal, which depends on the expected closeness of the race (at both state and national levels) and how voters respond to their effort. Structural estimation supports this model. For example, a 1-percent increase in the predicted closeness at the state level stimulates leaders' efforts, which increases turnout by 0.34 percent. (JEL D72, C33, C72, H41)