Structural change in European calf markets: decoupling and the blue tongue disease

Abstract

European cattle markets have recently undergone significant change. We explore the simultaneous impacts of agricultural policy reform and the occurrence of an animal health crisis on spatial interdependencies of calf prices of four major European Union markets. The markets are found to be integrated. Price shocks are rapidly absorbed. We find that the member state specific implementations of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy reforms significantly affected prices of both the national market and of other member states. The blue tongue disease further induced structural change. Using counterfactual scenarios, we show that the decoupling of payments from production led to reduced calf prices.