Valuation of R and D Projects Using Options Pricing and Decision Analysis Models

Abstract

A combination of options-pricing techniques and decision-analysis tools forms a practical process for evaluating R and D projects in a way that correctly values the impact of decision flexibility and the inevitable technical and commercial uncertainties. The options perspective leads to research-funding and project-selection decisions that can be radically different from those developed using the standard net-present-value financial rule. Decision-analysis tools simplify data acquisition. We applied the process at the Westinghouse Science and Technology Center using 13 embryonic research projects as a pilot test and subsequently applied it to the center's complete portfolio of research projects. Such an approach can be cost-effective for the type of scaled-down and decentralized research efforts that increasingly characterize US industry and can help research managers to optimize the level and composition of their research portfolios.