Hindsight Bias: On Being Wise After the Event

Abstract

Since Baruch Fischhoff's (1975) groundbreaking paper opened up a whole new research field, more than 150 journal articles and book chapters, two meta–analyses (Christensen–Szalanski & Willham, 1991; Guilbault, Bryant, Brockway & Posavac, 2004), and one special issue (Memory, 2003, edited by Ulrich Hoffrage & Rüdiger Pohl) have addressed hindsight phenomena. The current editorial aims to provide a rough roadmap to the hindsight bias research landscape. It highlights some important landmarks and developments of the last 30 years and puts the 13 articles of the present special issue into a historical and systematic perspective.