Risk as feelings.

George Loewenstein, Elke U. Weber, Christopher K. Hsee, Ned Welch

Psychological Bulletin · 2001 · 562 citations · 152 references

Concepts

TL;DR

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist, assuming people assess desirability and likelihood of outcomes and integrate them via expectation‑based calculus. The authors propose the risk‑as‑feelings hypothesis, emphasizing the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. They develop the risk‑as‑feelings framework by integrating affective responses into decision models, contrasting with expectation‑based calculations. Empirical evidence from clinical, physiological, and psychological studies shows that emotional reactions to risk often diverge from cognitive assessments, drive behavior, and account for phenomena that cognitive‑consequentialist theories cannot explain.

Abstract

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at a decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfields of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often diverge from cognitive assessments of those risks. When such divergence occurs, emotional reactions often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

References

152