Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors

Abstract

Abstract The feasibility of using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts's ensemble prediction system for tropical‐cyclone prediction is studied in terms of the spread in cyclone tracks and intensities. It is shown that significant spread in the tracks is obtained through the use of initial perturbations based on targeted singular vectors derived using linearized physics. Inclusion of stochastic physics in the forecast model leads to larger spread in the central pressures. The spread in the tracks shows a high level of sensitivity to the background state used in deriving the singular vectors.