Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian multivariate analysis of expert judgment elicited using an extended form of pairwise comparisons. The method can be used to estimate the effect of multiple factors on the probability of an event and can be applied in risk analysis and other decision problems. The model, which parallels Bayesian models for combining expert judgments, provides predictions of the quantity of interest that incorporate dependencies among the various experts. In this form we may learn about the dependencies between the experts from their responses. The analysis is applied to a real data set of expert judgments elicited during the Washington State Ferries Risk Assessment. The effect of the statistical dependence among experts is compared to an analysis assuming independence among them.