Measuring Improvements in the Disaster Resilience of Communities

TLDR

Building disaster‑resilient communities requires new methods that address technical, organizational, social, and economic dimensions beyond monetary loss estimation. The study develops and applies quantitative resilience measures linking expected future disaster losses to a community’s seismic performance objectives. Using an existing earthquake loss estimation model, the authors apply the measures to the Memphis, Tennessee water delivery system in a case study. Comparing two seismic retrofit strategies, only one improves resilience over the status quo, yet it falls short of adequate improvement, illustrating the framework’s usefulness for guiding mitigation and preparedness.

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the concept of disaster resilience through the development and application of quantitative measures. As the idea of building disaster-resilient communities gains acceptance, new methods are needed that go beyond estimating monetary losses and that address the complex, multiple dimensions of resilience. These dimensions include technical, organizational, social, and economic facets. This paper first proposes resilience measures that relate expected losses in future disasters to a community's seismic performance objectives. It then demonstrates these measures in a case study of the Memphis, Tennessee, water delivery system. An existing earthquake loss estimation model provides a starting point for quantifying resilience. The analysis compares two seismic retrofit strategies and finds that only one improves community resilience over the status quo. However, it does not raise resilience to an adequate degree. The exercise demonstrates that the resilience framework can be valuable for guiding mitigation and preparedness efforts. However, to fully implement the concept, new research on resilience is needed that goes beyond loss estimation modeling.