Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake

TLDR

The study presents an integrated operational model linking earthquake‑induced transportation and industrial losses to metropolitan economic impacts. The model endogenously incorporates network costs, origin‑destination flows, and distributes indirect and induced losses across zones and economic sectors using transportation and activity system analysis. Preliminary results for a magnitude‑7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles illustrate the model’s ability to estimate transportation and economic losses.

Abstract

In this paper we summarize an integrated, operational model of losses due to earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how these losses affect the metropolitan economy. The procedure advances the information provided by transportation and activity system analysis techniques in ways that help capture the most important ecomonic implications of earthquakes. Network costs and origin‐destination requirements are modeled endogenously and consistently. Indirect and induced losses associated with direct impacts on transportation and industrial capacity are distributed across zones and ecomonic sectors. Preliminary results are summarized for a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles.