Publication | Closed Access
The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions
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1997
Year
EngineeringEarthquake HazardsEarthquake ScenarioPower System RestorationNatural Disaster EconomicsSystems EngineeringScarce ElectricityElectricity SupplyPower SystemsEconomicsEarthquake EngineeringLifeline SystemRegional Economic ImpactElectricity Lifeline DisruptionsIndirect EffectsEarthquake Risk MitigationInfrastructure DevelopmentSmart GridEnergy TransitionCivil EngineeringBusinessCatastrophic EarthquakeInfrastructure SystemsDisaster Risk ReductionEnergy Economics
The study develops a method to estimate regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions from a catastrophic earthquake. The approach uses custom input‑output and linear‑programming models. Simulation of a major earthquake near Memphis shows up to 7 % GGP loss, but reallocating electricity and optimizing substation restoration can substantially mitigate these losses.
This paper develops a methodology to estimate the regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions caused by a catastrophic earthquake. The methodology is based on specially designed input‐output and linear programming models. A simulation of a major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone near Memphis, Tennessee, indicates the potential production loss over the recovery period could amount to as much as 7 percent of gross regional product. Reallocation of scarce electricity across sectors could reduce the impacts substantially. Additionally, an improved restoration pattern of electricity transmission substations across subareas could reduce losses even more.