Climate change, wine, and conservation

TLDR

Climate change threatens ecosystems directly through species range shifts and indirectly via land‑use changes, yet the impact of shifting agricultural production—illustrated by climate‑sensitive Mediterranean viticulture—has received little attention. The study demonstrates that climate change will substantially alter global viticultural suitability, creating conservation conflicts, and calls for agricultural adaptation and conservation strategies to anticipate these indirect effects. Projected climate change will reduce suitable viticulture area by 19–73 % by 2050, push vineyards to higher elevations and latitudes, and increase irrigation and cooling water use, thereby threatening upland ecosystems and freshwater resources.

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.