The Impact of Transit-oriented Development on Housing Prices in San Diego, CA

TLDR

Many view TOD as a key element in creating a less auto‑dependent and more sustainable transport system, with price premiums suggesting a market‑driven expansion of TOD inventory. This research measures the influence of transit‑oriented development on the San Diego condominium market. A hedonic price model, incorporating interaction terms between station distance and pedestrian orientation measures, isolates the statistical effect of TOD. The model shows that station proximity boosts prices more strongly in pedestrian‑oriented environments, while station‑area condos in auto‑oriented settings sell at a discount, indicating a synergistic value of TOD and a healthy demand for more TOD housing in San Diego.

Abstract

This research measures the influence of transit-oriented development (TOD) on the San Diego, CA, condominium market. Many view TOD as a key element in creating a less auto dependent and more sustainable transport system. Price premiums indicate a potential for a market-driven expansion of TOD inventory. A hedonic price model is estimated to isolate statistically the effect of TOD. This includes interaction terms between station distance and various measures of pedestrian orientation. The resulting model shows that station proximity has a significantly stronger impact when coupled with a pedestrian-oriented environment. Conversely, station area condominiums in more auto-oriented environments may sell at a discount. This indicates that TOD has a synergistic value greater than the sum of its parts. It also implies a healthy demand for more TOD housing in San Diego.