Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract

We examine whether the three-point rule—the increase in rewards for a win from two to three points that the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) adopted in 1995—makes Bundesliga games become more exciting. Using regression discontinuity design as the empirical strategy, we do not find evidence that the three-point rule makes games more decisive, increases the number of goals, or decreases goal differences. We only find some evidence that the three-point rule increases the second-half goals of losing first-half teams. Overall, our results suggest that, in the case of Bundesliga games, the three-point rule does not work as FIFA intended.