Impact and Handling of Demand Uncertainty in Multiperiod Planned Networks

Abstract

For long-term operated networks, pre-planning is a challenging task due to uncertainty in future demand requests. In this paper we first address the question of how severe the impact of demand uncertainty on the network costs really is. Results indicate that only for special cases, uncertainty is interesting to be addressed in the planning process itself. Additionally, we introduce a Stochastic Programming model in order to handle the influence of such a special case. It can be observed that including an improbable demand development into the planning process leads to cost efficient network solutions for all considered scenarios.