Evaluation of a very simple model for predicting the moisture content of eucalypt litter

Abstract

Operational prediction of wildfire behaviour requires assessment of dead fuel moisture content to an acceptable degree of accuracy. Ideally, the methods of assessment should be simple enough to implement in most operational settings, including those where computational power is a constraining factor. In this short note, we describe a very simple model for estimating dead fine fuel moisture content and compare its predictions with several fuel moisture observations and the predictions of a complex process-based model and two of its simplifications. Remarkably, the very simple model is shown to fit the observational data just as well, if not slightly better, than the more sophisticated models. The result highlights the issues of engineering and parsimony of models for dead fuel moisture content. These issues are briefly discussed.