An adaptive production simulation structure for operational planning with annual emission/fuel constraints

Abstract

This paper describes a production simulation structure for use in operational planning. The key features of the structure are: it captures the chronological aspects of power production; it models adaptive compliance with annual emission/fuel constraints; and it models generator availability using a conditional Monte Carlo sampling approach. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that this structure can produce unbiased and low variance results while modeling uncertainty with an acceptable computational requirement.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>