The Effects of Strategic and Economic Interdependence on International Conflict Across Levels of Analysis

TLDR

The study develops a Social Network Analytic framework to conceptualize and measure strategic and economic interdependence across monadic, dyadic, and systemic levels, and derives hypotheses from realist and liberal paradigms about their effects on conflict. The framework integrates sensitivity and vulnerability interdependence, measures interdependence at multiple levels and relationships, combines several dimensions into a single metric, and tests the hypotheses using data on alliances, military capability, and trade. Results provide robust support for liberal‑paradigm expectations that interdependence reduces conflict, while realist expectations are not supported, and the study discusses the theoretical and empirical implications.

Abstract

This study develops a Social Network Analytic approach to conceptualize and measure interdependence across levels of analysis. This framework contains several innovations. First, it integrates “sensitivity interdependence”—the effects of changes in one state on other states—with “vulnerability interdependence”—the opportunity costs of breaking a relationship. Second, it measures interdependence at different levels of analysis and across multiple relationships. Third, it integrates multiple dimensions of interdependence into a single measure. I derive hypotheses from the realist and liberal paradigms regarding the effects of strategic and economic interdependence on monadic, dyadic, and systemic conflict. These hypotheses are tested via data on alliances, military capability, and trade. The findings provide robust support to the expectations of the liberal paradigm regarding the effects of strategic and economic interdependence on conflict. On the other hand, the expectations of the realist paradigm are not supported. I discuss the theoretical and empirical implications of this approach.