Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning

TLDR

New ideas, products, and practices take time to diffuse, a fact that is often attributed to heterogeneity among potential adopters. The study examines contagion, social influence, and social learning diffusion models, demonstrating how to incorporate heterogeneity into each while preserving analytical tractability. The authors illustrate the framework by applying it to Ryan and Gross’s 1943 hybrid corn diffusion study. Each model type produces a distinct adoption‑curve footprint, enabling empirical discrimination among them. JEL codes: D83, O33, Q16, Z13.

Abstract

New ideas, products, and practices take time to diffuse, a fact that is often attributed to some form of heterogeneity among potential adopters. This paper examines three broad classes of diffusion models—contagion, social influence, and social learning—and shows how to incorporate heterogeneity into each at a high level of generality without losing analytical tractability. Each type of model leaves a characteristic “footprint” on the shape of the adoption curve which provides a basis for discriminating empirically between them. The approach is illustrated using the classic study of Ryan and Gross (1943) on the diffusion of hybrid corn. (JEL D83, O33, Q16, Z13)