Outcome uncertainty and attendance demand in sport: the case of English soccer

TLDR

Supporters favor outcome uncertainty, yet higher club quality can reduce attendance due to home‑field advantage creating uneven contests among strong teams. The study tests whether match attendance rises with the amount of outcome uncertainty between competing teams. Uncertainty is measured using a betting‑market model that corrects identified odds biases. Attendance is positively linked to team quality but negatively linked to the relative win‑probability measure. Summary.

Abstract

Summary. We test whether attendances in team sports respond positively to the amount of uncertainty of the outcome between the competing teams in a match. Our results show that admissions at English soccer matches relate positively to the quality of teams involved and negatively to a measure of the relative win probabilities of the competing teams. The uncertainty measure is derived from a model of the betting market which corrects for specific biases tested for and identified in the odds in our data set. Although supporters appear to favour an uncertainty of outcome, a greater quality of strength across clubs may still yield a fall in aggregate attendance because of the extent to which home field advantage generates an uneven contest between similarly strong teams.