Outcome uncertainty and attendance demand in sport: the case of English soccer

Summary. We test whether attendances in team sports respond positively to the amount of uncertainty of the outcome between the competing teams in a match. Our results show that admissions at English soccer matches relate positively to the quality of teams involved and negatively to a measure of the relative win probabilities of the competing teams. The uncertainty measure is derived from a model of the betting market which corrects for specific biases tested for and identified in the odds in our data set. Although supporters appear to favour an uncertainty of outcome, a greater quality of strength across clubs may still yield a fall in aggregate attendance because of the extent to which home field advantage generates an uneven contest between similarly strong teams.