Modeling and analysis of a dynamic judgment task using a lens model approach

Abstract

We investigated performance in a complex, dynamic decision-making task. Individual judgment performance in a command and control environment was modeled as linear combinations of environmental cue values using a lens model approach. Examination of the judgment models indicated that participants had similar judgment policies, while correlational and error analyzes indicated that performance differences were due to participants' abilities to execute judgment strategies rather than their knowledge of the task environment. The research demonstrated how the lens model approach can be extended to account for dynamic aspects of decision making in complex environments, through the use of individual, time dependent environmental models for each participant. Additionally, the research showed that a lens model approach is useful for characterizing factors in individual performance in complex judgment tasks. Empirically, this research suggests that training on task knowledge should be supplemented by training which focuses on the consistent execution of judgment strategies.