Containing Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents
American Journal of Epidemiology · 2004 · 715 citations · 28 references
VaccinationInfectious Disease ModellingPreventive MedicinePandemic InfluenzaEpidemic IntelligenceTargeted Antiviral ProphylaxisAntiviral ProphylaxisVirologyInfluenza VaccineInfluenza Death RateComputational EpidemiologyFlu VaccinationAntiviral DrugMedicineEpidemiologyEgg-based Vaccine ProductionInfluenza Vaccines
Antiviral agents are one of the few options to contain a pandemic influenza or bioterrorist attack in the U.S. until sufficient vaccine supplies are available. The study uses stochastic epidemic simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis for containing influenza and compares it with vaccination strategies. The authors modeled a pandemic or bioterrorist attack using stochastic epidemic simulations, where close contacts of suspected cases receive prophylactic antivirals, and compared this strategy to vaccinating 80% of the population, using an H2N2‑like influenza A virus.
For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.
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