Development of a Causal Model for Air Transport Safety

Abstract

The development of the Dutch international airport Schiphol has been the subject of fierce political debate for several decades. One of the considerations has been the safety of the population living around the airport. In the debate about the acceptability of the risks associated with the air traffic above The Netherlands the need has arisen to gain a more thorough understanding of the accident genesis in air traffic, with the ultimate aim of improving the safety situation in air traffic in general and around Schiphol in particular. To this end a research effort has been started in order to develop causal models for air traffic risks in the expectation that these will ultimately give the necessary insights. The first step is to organise the information available in accident databases.