Predicting the Next Outbursts of OJ 287 in 2006–2010

Abstract

In its nearly regular cycle of outbursts the quasar OJ 287 is due for another outburst season in 2006-2010. The prediction for the exact timing depends on the adopted model. In the precessing binary model of Lehto and Valtonen the timing depends on the time delay between the impact on the primary disk and the time when the impacted gas becomes optically thin. The time delay in turn depends on the properties of the accretion disk, the accretion rate, and the viscosity parameter α, which are not exactly known. We study the flexibility in timing provided by the uncertainties. In order to fix the model, two methods are used: the wobble of the jet, induced by the secondary, and the timing of the 1956 outburst, which has not been previously used. As a result, rather definite dates for the outbursts are obtained, which are different from a straightforward extrapolation of the past light curve. A new optical light curve with many new historical as well as recent points of observation have been put together and has been analyzed in order to reach these conclusions. Also, the high-frequency radio observations are found to agree with the jet wobble picture.