When Will an Airline Stand Its Ground? An Analysis of Fare Wars

Abstract

The research presented in this paper focuses on the recent onset of price wars in the airline industry while accommodating multimarket contact, multiple products, and a dispersed price distribution. An important innovation in this study is in developing a price war definition using a rank dominance criterion. A second innovation is the extension of a probit model to a bivariate probit, which assesses the behavior of multimarket firms after a price war occurs. In particular, a carrier may choose to stay and fight when a price war erupts or may simply leave a route. Carriers will engage in fare wars when market shares change, higher elasticity customers patron the route, and load factors drop. Carriers will leave routes after a fare war when offering service to another carrier's hub but will remain steadfast in their own spheres of influence.