Qualifying the Game Uncertainty Effect

Abstract

Much of the past empirical analysis of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH) has gauged the responsiveness of attendance to uncertainty in either the Major League Baseball or European football regular season. This study diverges from those studies by examining broadcast ratings for National Football League playoff games and testing the UOH in teams’ local markets as well as outside of the local markets of the competing teams. The research does not support that game uncertainty is related to ratings in local markets, but, consistent with the UOH, finds a fan preference for evenly matched teams outside of the local markets.