An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

Abstract

Abstract Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion m3, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.