Anchors Distort Estimates of Expected Duration

Abstract

This research explored the effect of presenting participants an anchor, which is a salient standard of comparison, before asking them to estimate the amount of time they believe they will need to complete a task (expected duration estimation). Such anchors can be assumed to be common in real-life situations, e.g., duration suggestions made by work colleagues. Participants were 32 students (M age = 23.1 yr., SD = 3.2; 28 women) who received course credit for participating. In the presence or absence of one of two anchors they had to estimate how much time they would need to work on a catalogue task. Actual time needed for the task was also measured. As predicted, analysis showed that estimates of expected duration were distorted in the direction of the anchors, i.e., estimations were assimilated into the presented anchor value. The implications for time management are discussed.