Livestock Raiding and Rainfall Variability in Northwestern Kenya

Abstract

In 2009, Witsenburg and Adano summarized their research on rainfall variability and livestock raiding in Marsabit District, Kenya. They found that livestock-related violence was higher in wetter months and wetter years, contrary to the common assumption that scarcity of water and pasture is the primary driver of livestock violence. Our research, focusing on the neighboring Turkana District of northwestern Kenya, attempted to replicate the Witsenburg and Adano findings for the years 1998–2009. We find significant relationships between rainfall variability and intensity of livestock violence, but in the opposite direction – drier months and drought years in Turkana District have higher intensities of violence.